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Match Group, Inc. (MTCH)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 revenue was $914.3M, up 2% YoY and in line with guidance; diluted EPS was $0.62 and Adjusted EBITDA was $301.4M (33% margin). Excluding a $61M legal settlement and $2M restructuring, Adjusted EBITDA would have been $364M (40% margin), up 6% YoY .
  • Segment dynamics: Hinge continued strong growth (+27% direct revenue YoY), Tinder remained soft (-3% direct revenue YoY), E&E declined (-4%), and MG Asia was impacted by a regulator block on Azar in Turkey (-$3M) .
  • Product/Trust momentum: Tinder rolled out AI “Chemistry” matching, Double Date/College Modes, and Face Check, showing reduced bad actor exposure (-60%) and improved user trust; alternative payments are tracking ~$14M savings in Q4 and ~$90M in 2026 .
  • Q4 outlook: Revenue $865–$875M and Adjusted EBITDA $350–$355M (41% margin), with explicit headwinds from user-experience testing at Tinder (-$14M) and continued Azar block (-$9M); full-year FCF raised to $1.11–$1.14B; tax rate high-teens .
  • Stock reaction catalysts: operational discipline and capital returns (17.4M shares repurchased YTD and $141M dividends), trust & safety leadership via Face Check, and a 2026 Tinder product event; settlement resolution removes a long-standing overhang .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Hinge momentum: Direct revenue $185M (+27% YoY), payers +17%, RPP +9%; strong early results from AI features and international expansion (Mexico in Q3, Brazil planned Q4) .
  • Trust & safety progress (Face Check): 60% fewer views of bad actor profiles and 40% fewer bad actor reports; improved user-perceived authenticity (+5–10 pts in surveys) and only low-single-digit initial MAU/revenue impact .
  • Alternative payments optimization: adoption increased across Tinder, Hinge and E&E, driving ~$14M Q4 savings and ~$90M 2026 savings; Google policy change offers incremental $10–$15M annual savings potential .

Quote: “We delivered on our revenue expectations and exceeded our Adjusted EBITDA goals, excluding a legal settlement… momentum continues to build” — CEO Spencer Rascoff .

What Went Wrong

  • Tinder softness persists: Direct revenue $491M (-3% YoY, -4% FXN), payers -7%; adjusted EBITDA down 23% YoY to $204M; additional Q4 testing expected to reduce Tinder direct revenue by ~$14M .
  • E&E weakness: Direct revenue $152M (-4% YoY), payers -13% even as RPP +10%; management no longer expects Emerging brands to offset Evergreen declines in 2025 .
  • MG Asia regulatory headwind: Azar blocked in Turkey (late August) impacted Q3 by ~$3M and is assumed to continue into Q4 (-$9M); MG Asia adjusted EBITDA -14% YoY .

Financial Results

Consolidated results vs prior quarters

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$831.2 $863.7 $914.3
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$172.6 $193.9 $221.3
Operating Income Margin %21% 22% 24%
Adjusted EBITDA / Adjusted Operating Income ($USD Millions)$275.2 $289.9 $301.4
Adjusted EBITDA Margin %33% 34% 33%
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.44 $0.49 $0.62

Note: Match renamed “Adjusted Operating Income” to “Adjusted EBITDA” and stated the measure is numerically identical, with reconciliation now starting from net income rather than operating income .

Q3 2025 vs S&P Global consensus

MetricConsensusActual
Revenue ($USD Millions)914.8*914.3
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)333.2*305.6
Primary EPS ($USD)0.911*0.8255*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Segment breakdown (Q3 2025)

MetricTinderHingeE&EMG Asia
Direct Revenue ($USD Millions)$491 $185 $152 $69
Payers (Millions)9.3 1.9 2.3 1.1
RPP ($USD)$17.66 $32.87 $22.22 $20.73
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$204 $63 $47 $15
Adjusted EBITDA Margin %40% 34% 30% 22%

KPIs and capital returns

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Consolidated Payers (000s)14,198 14,093 14,527
RPP ($USD)$19.07 $20.00 $20.58
Direct Revenue ($USD Millions)$812 $845 $897
Total Diluted Shares Outstanding (Millions)255.8 249.1 244.8
Share repurchases (YTD through Q3)—13.7M shares; $420M 17.4M shares; $550M
Dividends paid (YTD through Q3)$48M $95M $141M

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)Q4 2025N/A$865–$875 Introduced
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)Q4 2025N/A$350–$355 Introduced
Adjusted EBITDA Margin %Q4 2025N/A41% Introduced
Indirect Revenue ($USD Millions)Q4 2025N/A~$15 Introduced
Restructuring Costs ($USD Millions)Q4 2025N/A$4 included Introduced
L.A. office sale impact ($USD Millions)Q4 2025N/A+$8 Introduced
Tinder direct revenue test impact ($USD Millions)Q4 2025N/A-$14 Introduced
MG Asia direct revenue impact (Azar block) ($USD Millions)Q4 2025N/A-$9 Introduced
Free Cash Flow ($USD Billions)FY 2025N/A$1.11–$1.14 Introduced/raised
Tax Rate (%)FY 2025N/AHigh-teens Updated
Dividend ($/share)Q1 2026N/A$0.19 (payable Jan 21, 2026) Declared

Prior quarter Q3 guidance (for reference): Revenue $910–$920M; Adjusted Operating Income $330–$335M; ~36% margin (renamed to Adjusted EBITDA) .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 & Q1)Current Period (Q3)Trend
AI/technology initiativesQ2: Double Date global; AI-enabled Discovery; Hinge AI recommendation (+15% matches) . Q1: Accelerated product velocity; AI-enabled Discovery; Hinge algorithm rollout .Tinder’s “Chemistry” AI matching live in NZ/Australia; Modes (Double Date/College) adoption; performance improvements; Hinge AI features (Conversation Starters) .Accelerating product-led innovation
Trust & safetyQ2: Expanded Face Check; enhanced bot detection . Q1: New trust features testing at Tinder .Face Check rollout required for new users in CA and multiple countries; -60% bad actor exposure, -40% reports; improved NPS .Strengthening; measurable impact
Alternative payments / feesQ2: Reinvest $50M; initial web payments tests .40–60% shift to web across major apps; ~$14M Q4 and ~$90M 2026 savings; potential $10–$15M incremental from Google policy .Savings bigger than prior expectations
Tinder user outcomes vs monetizationQ2/Q1: Revitalize phase; reset org; clear brand purpose .Explicit tests may reduce near-term revenue; focus on outcomes; Sparks coverage improving; MAU stabilizing down high-single-digits .Trading near-term monetization for outcomes
Regional trendsQ2: Hinge expansion planned Mexico/Brazil; E&E mixed; MG Asia steady sans live streaming .Hinge launched Mexico; Brazil planned Q4; MG Asia hit by Azar block; E&E weaker than expected .Mixed; Hinge strong, MG Asia/E&E headwinds
Regulatory/legalQ1: Workforce reduction 13%; restructuring .Settlement of Candelore v. Tinder ($61M charge); Azar blocked in Turkey .Clearing legacy issues; ongoing regional risk

Management Commentary

  • “We delivered on our revenue expectations and exceeded our Adjusted EBITDA goals, excluding a legal settlement… momentum continues to build as we make progress in our revitalization phase.” — CEO Spencer Rascoff .
  • “Face Check sets a new standard for authenticity… 60% reduction in views of bad actor profiles and a 40% decrease in bad actor reports.” — Prepared remarks .
  • “We now expect… approximately $14 million of savings in Q4 2025 and approximately $90 million in 2026” from alternative payments; “we may see some short-term revenue and Adjusted EBITDA impacts from these tests” — Prepared remarks .

Q&A Highlights

  • Tinder strategy: Prioritizing user outcomes (Chemistry, Modes, recommendations), with acknowledged near-term revenue headwinds (~$14M in Q4) as tests continue; targeting a spring 2026 product event .
  • Alternative payments: Stronger-than-expected adoption across apps driving ~$90M 2026 savings; Google policy change may add $10–$15M annually .
  • Hinge expansion: Mexico launch ahead of prior European pace; Brazil launch planned; confidence in large global TAM for intentional dating .
  • Category dynamics: Focus on educating non-users; multi-app usage benefits category leader; MAU stabilizing down high-single-digits while Spark coverage improves .
  • Marketing rigor: New cross-brand framework (Project Prism) to optimize spend efficacy and allocation by brand .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 versus S&P Global consensus: Revenue essentially in line (actual $914.3M vs $914.8M*); Adjusted EBITDA missed (actual $305.6M vs $333.2M*); EPS missed (0.8255* vs 0.911*). Management noted the $61M legal settlement and $2M restructuring; excluding these, Adjusted EBITDA would have been $364M (40% margin), above guidance and up YoY . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Q4 2025 alignment: Guidance midpoint revenue ($870M) brackets consensus ($872.8M*); Adjusted EBITDA guidance midpoint ($352.5M) is slightly above consensus ($351.8M*). Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Hinge is the growth engine (27% direct revenue growth) and likely continues to drive mix shift; sustained product innovation and new markets should support momentum .
  • Tinder turnaround is outcome-focused; expect near-term revenue/test impacts but improving engagement quality (Sparks coverage up) and trust metrics should underpin medium-term recovery .
  • Trust & safety leadership (Face Check) is a differentiated moat that can expand category acceptance and reduce ecosystem friction, supporting both growth and brand perception .
  • Alternative payments are a material margin tailwind (~$14M Q4; ~$90M 2026), partially offsetting product-driven revenue trade-offs; incremental Google-related savings add optionality .
  • Capital returns remain robust (nearly 100% of FCF returned via buybacks/dividends YTD); diluted shares down 8% YoY, enhancing per-share economics .
  • Watch regulatory risk in MG Asia (Azar block) and continued E&E weakness; both are baked into Q4 guidance but require monitoring .
  • Near-term trading: Mixed print (in-line revenue, EPS/EBITDA below consensus) may cap upside; ex-settlement profitability and raised FCF outlook, plus explicit Q4 margin guidance, provide support. Medium-term thesis hinges on Tinder product event and category trust gains translating into audience and monetization improvement .